State Coal Industry (600188): Australia’s production area has become a major profit growth point
Investment Highlights The net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 16 in 2018.
81%, fourth-quarter performance exceeded expectations: the company achieved revenue of 1,630 in 2018.
08 million yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.
79 %%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 79.
08 million yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
81%; gross margin is 19.
49%, an increase of 2 per year.
8 units; net profit decreased by 5.
22%, rising by 0 every year.
8 averages, EPS is 1.
61 yuan, EPS after deducting non-recurring profit and loss is 1.
The distribution plan is to allocate 5 cash for every 10 shares.
40 yuan (including tax), the dividend ratio is 33.
54%, calculated according to the closing price at the reporting date.
The company in Q4 realized revenue and net profit attributable to mother 438 respectively.
1.8 billion and 30.
12 trillion, an increase of 2 sequentially.
18% and 159.
04%, single quarter EPS is 0.
61 yuan, the highest single-quarter profit since 2011.
The volume and price of coal 四川耍耍网 business rose in 2018, and the Australian sector was the main source of incremental earnings: the company’s coal sector contributed revenue and gross profit of 624 in 2018.
28 ppm and 274.
81 trillion, accounting for 39% of the company’s revenue and gross profit.
06% and 93.
11%, an increase of 28 each year.
79% and 26.
The profit growth of the coal sector comes from both volume and price. In 2018, the company’s coal production and sales were 9510.
1 positive and 11394.
2 Initially, at least 18 respectively.
99% and 17.
71%, the average price of coal sales was 548 yuan / ton, an increase of 9 year-on-year.
42%, the cost of selling coal per ton was 303 yuan, an increase of 12 over.
09%, gross profit of 238 yuan per ton.
Up to 3.
25%.Yancoal Australia contributed 4,378 coal production.
4 Initial and commercial coal sales were 3359.
9 Initially, the proportions of the company’s raw coal production and commercial coal sales were 41.
35% and 29.
11%, 13 points and 10 points higher than the previous year, respectively, and contributed 35% of coal revenue.
33%, up 12 units from the previous year, contributing 43 of the gross profit of coal.
24%, up 16 units from last year, has become the company’s main source of profit growth.
Shanxi Nenghua, Ordos Nenghua, and Haosheng Coal Mining have been fully released due to rising costs or changes in output, and their contribution to gross profit has also changed.
33% and 127.
Q4 net profit increased by 159.
04%, mainly from the decrease of the financial expenses: Q4 company achieved revenue of 438.
180,000 yuan, an increase of 2 from the previous month.
18%, an increase of 36 per year.
89%; net profit attributable to mother 30.
12 trillion, an increase of 159.
04%, an annual increase of 51.
Gross profit margin and net profit margin were 18 respectively.
49% and 6.
87%, an increase of 0 from the previous month.
48 and 4.
The growth of Q4’s net profit was mainly due to the decrease in QoQ of financial expenses, and Q4’s financial expenses were zero.
29%, down 2 from the previous month.
The Q4 coal segment achieved revenue of 127.
7.3 billion, accounting for 29% of the company’s revenue.
15%, down 3 from the previous month.
08%, achieving a gross profit of 67.
3.0 billion, down 4 from the previous month.
91%, accounting for 81% of the company’s gross profit.
75%; coal production is 2765, an annual increase of 11.
15%, the increase mainly comes from the recovery of production in the Ordos production area, of which Ordos Nenghua and Haosheng Coal Industry’s output rose by 83.
07% and 14.
07%; the company’s ton of coal sales price was 529 yuan, down 9 from the previous month.
At 7%, the decline in average price was mainly dragged down by the decline in Australian coal prices; the cost per ton of coal was 252 yuan, a decrease of 7 from the previous month.
73%, gross profit per ton of coal was 278 yuan, a decrease of 11 from the previous month.
40%.In terms of production areas, the headquarters and Yancoal Australia contributed 43% and 47% of Q4 gross profit respectively; the production in the Ordos production area rebounded month-on-month, and the scale of Haosheng Coal Industry narrowed by 42% month-on-year; Shanxi Nenghua’s costs fell due to production declineUp, Q4 gross margin is -1.
The future growth mainly comes from the production release and coal chemical projects in the Ordos mining area: In 2018, the company’s Shiluusu Coal Mine in Ordos and Yingpanyu Coal Mine added 2200 tons of approved production capacity, and the capacity of Zhuanlongwan Coal Mine increased from 500 tons to 1,000 microns / year.
However, due to environmental protection and other policies, in 2018, the Ordos production area only contributed 1,816 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was only 57%. In the future, the capacity conversion and release in this area will lead to a decline in unit cost and a contribution to profit is expected; Shandong Wanfu Coal Mine was put into productionThe time has been extended from 2019 to 2021, and the short-term contribution to profit is not significant.
In the coal chemical industry, the company’s Rongxin Chemical Phase II project is under construction with an annual output of 40 inches of particle size and 30 contacts with DMMn. The Yulin Nenghua Methanol Plant Phase II 50-methanol DMMn technical transformation project is expected to be put into operation within the year, extending the coal chemical industry chain. It is expected thatBecome a new profit growth point.
Investment suggestion: We adjusted the company’s profit forecast according to the project investment, the time of production and the expected downward trend of the coal price hub in 2019. The adjusted EPS of the company for 2019-2021 is 1, respectively.
60 yuan, 1.
79 yuan and 2.
15 yuan, return on net asset income 12.
0% and 14.
The company’s future growth rate will decline, but the release capacity that can be generated can offset the downward expectations of 5% -8% of the decline in coal prices in 2019. Estimated deviations, high allocations provide a certain margin of safety, and we maintain the investment of “overweight-A”Rating.
Risk reminders: coal prices fall more than expected; environmental protection supervision risks; exchange risks; coal mines fail to meet production expectations risks.